Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.508075 1.575878 1.646427 1.725565 1.812174 1.904435 2.010623
2026-01-25 1.403085 1.490315 1.583984 1.692739 1.816443 1.953896 2.119798
2026-02-01 1.339459 1.440097 1.550754 1.682705 1.837483 2.015559 2.239446
2026-02-08 1.287327 1.397298 1.520515 1.670652 1.851328 2.065482 2.344632
2026-02-15 1.242598 1.359323 1.492159 1.656989 1.859755 2.106476 2.438792
2026-02-22 1.213829 1.337642 1.480636 1.661206 1.888176 2.171709 2.566760
2026-03-01 1.169400 1.295118 1.441780 1.629239 1.868464 2.172989 2.607974
2026-03-08 1.134574 1.262459 1.413076 1.607835 1.860050 2.187119 2.666138
2026-03-15 1.106855 1.237162 1.392045 1.594588 1.860699 2.212243 2.740431
2026-03-22 1.097848 1.234071 1.397877 1.615204 1.906152 2.300057 2.912798
2026-03-29 1.093055 1.235723 1.409313 1.643063 1.962191 2.405706 3.122466
2026-04-05 1.072777 1.217307 1.394519 1.635494 1.968826 2.440416 3.223194
2026-04-12 1.056733 1.204217 1.386662 1.637591 1.990090 2.499551 3.373378
2026-04-19 1.028279 1.174587 1.356480 1.608267 1.965104 2.487253 3.400417
2026-04-26 1.009991 1.157368 1.341813 1.599356 1.968751 2.518545 3.506604
2026-05-03 0.991946 1.139938 1.326266 1.588492 1.968755 2.543730 3.604111
2026-05-10 0.974256 1.122488 1.310131 1.576104 1.965700 2.563487 3.693299
2026-05-17 0.963956 1.114266 1.305865 1.579961 1.986749 2.623112 3.866372
2026-05-24 0.941392 1.089566 1.278952 1.550858 1.956480 2.595923 3.862110
2026-05-31 0.923418 1.070520 1.259191 1.531343 1.940075 2.590985 3.903198
2026-06-07 0.908994 1.055836 1.244950 1.519255 1.934539 2.603987 3.983467
2026-06-14 0.906673 1.056985 1.252081 1.538069 1.977772 2.703654 4.266659
2026-06-21 0.906790 1.061298 1.263542 1.563461 2.032563 2.828171 4.632593